Over $11 Billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum Options Expire Today Amid Mixed Market Sentiment
May 31 marked a major milestone in the crypto derivatives market as over $11.4 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options expired simultaneously. Amid mixed market sentiment and choppy price action, the event could be a catalyst for significant short-term volatility.
Massive May Options Expiration
According to data from Deribit, the world’s largest crypto options exchange, the number of contracts expiring today far exceeded the weekly average. Specifically:
Bitcoin options: 92,459 contracts, equivalent to approximately $9.79 billion
Ethereum options: 623,949 contracts, equivalent to $1.63 billion
The total value of options expiring was $11.42 billion, reflecting the high level of speculative and hedging activity in May.
Put/Call ratio shows bullish sentiment
The Put-to-Call ratio – an indicator that measures market sentiment based on the number of put and call options – shows a positive trend:
Bitcoin: Put/Call = 0.89
Ethereum: Put/Call = 0.81
A ratio below 1 is generally interpreted as a bullish market, with many traders betting on a price recovery scenario after the recent correction.
However, analysts at Deribit warn that:
“Calls dominate at higher strikes, reflecting bullish expectations, but this could also leave the market vulnerable to volatility if buying demand weakens.”
“Pain” levels and their impact on price action
“Max pain” – the price at which an option seller would suffer the least loss – is determined as follows:
Bitcoin: $100,000
Ethereum: $2,300
These pain levels reflect bullish sentiment but could put pressure on prices to move toward equilibrium before contracts expire.
Volatility could increase post-expiry
While many indicators suggest the market remains bullish, signs of protection are emerging. The Greeks.live analysis team said:
“The market is in a precarious holding mode. If buying power stops for a moment, Bitcoin price could collapse like a rock.”
Open interest data also shows that many traders have been actively buying put options to protect their portfolios, especially as Bitcoin hovers around $106,000 – down 1.43% over the past 24 hours. Ethereum is also down 3.43% to $2,634.
Ethereum Shows Relative Strength But Still Cautious
Despite ETH’s slight correction, analysts have noted Ethereum’s relative strength against Bitcoin in recent weeks. The implied volatility (IV) for ETH remains around 70% – a sign that investors are still pricing in high short-term volatility.
While large institutions tend to stay on the sidelines and wait for clearer signals, retail investors continue to expect ETH to lead a new rally in the summer.
Conclusion: Market sentiment remains positive but volatility is likely
The $11 billion+ options expiry could be a short-term turning point for the crypto market. While the overall sentiment remains bullish, hedge data and analyst warnings suggest caution is warranted.
After the options expiry, the market could see a sharp move – either in the direction of a recovery if buying pressure persists, or a deeper correction if selling pressure prevails.
Keeping a close eye on the next developments, especially in the first few days of June, could provide strategic opportunities for short- and medium-term investors.