New Generation of Bitcoin Whales Take Over Nearly Half of Market Control – A Worrying Sign for BTC’s Recovery
A new wave of Bitcoin whales is slowly taking over the market’s capital structure. According to the latest on-chain data, 45% of the “Whale Realized Cap” now belongs to new whales, marking a clear shift in power between generations of large Bitcoin investors. But this is not just a change, it also poses many potential risks for BTC’s price in the short term.
Generation Shift Among Bitcoin Whales
New whales, defined as investors who have accumulated over 1,000 BTC in recent months, are emerging strongly. They bought into the market recovery, when Bitcoin surpassed $110,000 and headed towards its historical peak. Now, as BTC corrects below $112,000, this group is starting to feel the loss for the first time in more than a year.
In contrast, veteran whales who accumulated early are still holding positive profits thanks to low purchase prices. They are gradually transferring their holdings to the new group, changing the structure of market control.
Why is this worrying?
According to CryptoQuant, the average strike price of new whales is around $112,788, while the current price is only around $110,200. That means most new whales are “negative equity”.
As this group lacks experience, they can react strongly during a bearish period, especially if the market continues to weaken. A mass sell-off from new whales could cause Bitcoin to fall faster and deeper.
Meanwhile, old whales have more experience and capital, so they tend to “hold” through the correction period. This creates a clear psychological difference: the new group is more volatile, the old group is steadfast, making the market more prone to extreme volatility than usual.
Falling Open Interest Signals Weak Market Confidence
Data from Coinglass shows that Bitcoin futures open interest has dropped sharply in recent days, reflecting a large number of traders exiting the market. While this may reduce short-term volatility, it also shows a general lack of confidence in the upcoming direction of BTC.
What is the outlook for November?
The market is currently caught between two opposing scenarios:
If new whales hold firm and continue to accumulate, BTC could quickly reclaim the $115,000 zone and resume its upward momentum.
Conversely, if selling pressure from this group increases, Bitcoin could retest the psychological support zone around $105,000, opening a new short-term correction cycle.
Regardless, the shift in power between whale generations remains a major highlight of 2024–2025, reflecting the change in the large investor class of the crypto market. The question is: will the new whales have the courage to keep Bitcoin steady against the storm, or will they become the agents that cause the next correction to happen sooner than expected?