New Bitcoin Whales Surpass Long-Term Holders – What Does It Mean for the Market?
The latest on-chain report from CryptoQuant reveals a historic shift in Bitcoin’s ownership structure: short-term holders – dubbed “New Whales” – now hold a majority of the whales’ realized capitalization for the first time, surpassing long-term BTC holders in years.
New Whales Account for 52.4% of Total Bitcoin Whale Capital
According to analysis by researcher JA Maartunn, “New Whales” are defined as addresses with transaction activity over the past 155 days. These wallets currently hold 52.4% of the Whales’ Realized Cap – a measure of the whales’ realized capitalization, calculated by the value of each Bitcoin when it was last moved on-chain.
Meanwhile, the “Old Whales” group – those who have held BTC long-term without making significant moves – currently holds only 47.6% of the capital.
BTC Price Nears $97,000 – Who’s Driving the Bullish Wave?
The increase in the market share of New Whales has coincided with Bitcoin’s impressive rally since mid-2024 – from around $30,000 to nearly $97,000 currently. These new wallets have an average purchase cost of around $91,922, meaning that most of them are sitting on a thin unrealized profit. Meanwhile, Old Whales have an average cost of just $31,765, leaving them with little selling pressure.
It should be noted that much of the recent price push has come from new investors entering the market at high prices, helping to fuel strong buying in the near-$90,000 region. This creates a potential support zone but also carries risks if the price falls below this group’s cost.
Historical Shift in Bitcoin Ownership Structure
CryptoQuant’s historical data shows that whale dominance is a rare phenomenon. From 2015–2019, this group accounted for less than 5% of the total whale capitalization. Even during the 2020–2021 bull run, they accounted for only about 25%. However, the capitulation phase of the 2022 bear market saw their market share plummet below 10%.
Since 2023, the trend has completely reversed. The influx of new money, especially from institutions, ETFs, and individual investors in the US after the approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF, has helped the new group of whales expand their influence and shape the market.
What’s Next for Bitcoin?
The big question now is: do these new investors have enough “big hands” to hold their positions in a volatile market?
If Bitcoin holds above the average price range of New Whales (\~$92,000), the uptrend could continue as this group is not pushed to take profits. But if BTC corrects deeply, especially below the $90,000 area, selling pressure from this new group could cause major volatility, as they do not have the “long-term confidence” of older investors.
On the contrary, with lower investment costs and a strong mentality, the long-term whale group will be a support if the market corrects.
Conclusion
The reversal in Bitcoin’s ownership structure shows that a new phase is opening up – where new money plays a key role in price trends. This is a sign of BTC’s increasing appeal to large investors. However, it also makes the market more sensitive to the psychology and actions of the new group of investors entering.
Hold or take profits – their choice may decide the fate of this rally.