Bitcoin Has 77% Chance of Reaching New High in 2025, Expert Says
A new analysis from financial expert Fred Krueger is making waves in the crypto investment community. He claims that Bitcoin (BTC) has a 77% chance of reaching an all-time high (ATH) in 2025 – a prediction based on rigorous mathematical modeling and historical data.
Prediction Built on Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) Model
In a detailed post on the X platform, Fred Krueger used the geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) model to predict Bitcoin’s price behavior in the coming year. This is one of the most popular mathematical models in financial analysis, often used to simulate asset prices and estimate portfolio risk.
Krueger initially assumed zero deviation (i.e. no upward trend) and 80% annual volatility, which gave BTC a 65% chance of hitting a new ATH of $108,000 by 2025.
However, after adjusting the model to reflect Bitcoin’s historical growth trend – applying the 40% power law – the probability increased to 77%. This result was confirmed by AI simulations.
“ChatGPT verified my simulation – the probability of Bitcoin hitting an ATH by 2025 is indeed 77%,” Krueger shared.
Market data remains skeptical
Krueger’s forecast offers a bullish outlook that contrasts with current prediction markets. On Polymarket, the probability of BTC hitting an ATH before 2026 stands at just 52%. On Kalshi, the odds of Bitcoin hitting $150,000 by the end of 2025 are even just 23%.
Krueger believes those numbers are “misleading” and can be exploited with dynamic hedging arbitrage.
Macro factors driving BTC price
In addition to mathematical models, many other experts are also expecting a strong growth momentum for Bitcoin this year based on macroeconomic fluctuations:
- The US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling sharply, falling to a 3-year low. With an inverse correlation between BTC and DXY, this is a factor supporting Bitcoin's recovery.
- Global M2 liquidity is rising again, reaching an all-time high. Historically, Bitcoin's price has often rallied after M2's rally with a lag of about 75 to 105 days.
An analyst on X also predicted:
“April is the time when Bitcoin forms a mid-term bottom and starts a new super growth cycle. The $86,000 level is not the peak, but just the beginning.”
He also said that the capital flow from gold to Bitcoin is a clear signal that investors are looking at BTC as an alternative shelter amid rising inflation and currency instability.
Long-term outlook: $500,000 - $650,000 by 2030
Not stopping at 2025, many experts – including Krueger – believe that Bitcoin can reach $550,000 to $650,000 by 2030, thanks to:
- Fixed supply – capped at 21 million BTC
- Global currency devaluation
- Wider acceptance from financial institutions
Conclusion
With supporting mathematical models, increased liquidity, and a weakening USD, Bitcoin is facing a great opportunity to return to – and surpass – its historical peak. Although the market is still cautious in its predictions, analysts like Krueger believe that 2025 will be a pivotal year for Bitcoin to establish a new price zone.
What do you think? Will Bitcoin really reach an ATH this year, or will the market still have many surprises ahead?