Bitcoin Could Break ‘September Curse’ as Exchange Supply Hits Record Low
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September has traditionally been Bitcoin’s weakest month, with an average return of -3.2%, but the drop in exchange BTC to a six-year low is opening up the possibility of a reversal.
September has often been a source of concern for the Bitcoin (BTC) market. Historically, the world’s largest cryptocurrency has rarely maintained its bullish momentum into the latter part of the third quarter. However, new on-chain signals suggest this year could be a different story.
September History – Bitcoin’s “Trough”
According to data from Coinglass, Bitcoin recorded an average return of -3.2% in September, making it the worst month in its trading history. From 2017 to 2022, BTC has consistently closed the month in the red, creating a cautious sentiment among investors.
In August 2025, Bitcoin fell 6%, causing many analysts to worry that the downtrend will continue. Some experts believe that the market is showing signs of a “short-term cycle peak”, which is prone to a deeper correction.
However, history also shows that after the weak period in September, Bitcoin often rebounds strongly in the fourth quarter, especially in the years after the halving.
Positive signs: Exchange supply hits 6-year low
The most notable point at present is the on-chain data. According to analyst CryptoRand, the amount of BTC held on exchanges has dropped to its lowest level since 2019.
This shows that selling pressure is weakening significantly. When the supply on exchanges is scarce, any boost from the demand side can create a “bullish supply shock” - a factor that has often opened the door to large price increases.
Cade Bergmann, a market expert, commented:
“We are witnessing a potential supply-demand shift. If demand increases slightly amid a lack of supply on the floor, prices could rebound much faster than expected.”
Macro factors: Fed and sensitive time frames
In addition to on-chain factors, the market is also looking at macro factors. The US Federal Reserve is expected to make a decision on interest rates in September. If the Fed signals a cut, this could be a catalyst for Bitcoin to reverse.
Some analysts also point to specific time frames. Marty Party, a trading expert, predicts that September 6 could be the tipping point due to market maker activity, while September 17, tied to the FOMC meeting, could determine the overall trend of the month.
Can Bitcoin break the “September curse”?
While many experts remain cautious, the combination of falling supply, macro expectations, and historical cycles could help Bitcoin weather this difficult period.
Benjamin Cowen, CEO of Into The Cryptoverse, emphasized:
“In the years following the halving, September has typically been a short-term bottom before the market enters a bull run. Everything is lining up with that scenario.”
For now, Bitcoin is hovering around a key support level, and the big question is: Will 2025 see a surprise September breakout, or will the familiar “red month” scenario repeat itself?