Altcoin Season Is Changing: How Retail Investors Can Identify the Next Winners
In the past, every time Bitcoin rallied strongly, a wave of altcoins often followed, fueling optimism across the entire crypto market. However, the new market cycle no longer seems to be following the old script. Instead, a “selective altcoin season” is starting to emerge, where only the truly strong and valuable projects can survive and grow.
The End of the “Altcoin Mass Prosperity” Era
According to Hitesh Malviya, founder of analytics platform DYOR, the current altcoin season will not be a tide that lifts all boats. “What we have seen in previous cycles is bubbles that grow and burst. In this cycle, only projects with strong fundamentals will have a chance to shine,” Malviya shared.
The shift in money behavior has shaped a new reality: the market now rewards quality over hype. Investors are no longer easily swayed by meme coins or projects that lack real-world use cases. Instead, metrics like revenue, usage, trading volume, and community growth are increasingly valued.
Liquidity and “stories” are key drivers
Liquidity is no longer flowing across the entire market as it used to, but instead moving in lockstep with each hot “story” — from DeFi, metaverse, AI to DePIN (decentralized infrastructure in the real world). Savvy investors are closely following media trends, social updates, and development activity to stay ahead of new opportunities.
“The crypto market is now like the stock market — there are always sectors that outperform at any given time. Liquidity is constantly circulating with each hot story,” Malviya said.
Identifying Winners Amidst a Market Correction
A key strategy for finding potential altcoins is to track coins that show high relative strength during a market correction. If an altcoin can hold its price, or even increase when Bitcoin is falling, it signals strong demand and is likely a sign of early accumulation from smart investors.
DYOR provides an “Optimized Relative Strength” index that tracks coin performance over 7, 30, and 90 days. Projects that outperform the rest over a 30-day period are likely to have strong recovery potential as the market enters a new bull cycle.
Fundamentals to Watch
In addition to relative strength, Malviya recommends that retail investors analyze on-chain and tokenomics metrics to gain insight into a project’s potential:
- DEX volume: Growth in trading on decentralized exchanges is a positive sign for the native token.
- TVL (Total Value Locked): Shows the level of trust and commitment of users to the protocol.
- Derivatives volume: Shows the level of professional trader participation.
- TVS (Total Value Secured by Oracles): Shows the reliance on data-providing platforms, such as Chainlink.
- DePIN revenue: Reflects a sustainable model and real value rather than just chasing trends.
Tokenomics is the deciding factor
An important but often overlooked factor is tokenomics – how the supply and usage dynamics of tokens are designed. Poor tokenomics, such as excessive inflation or unhealthy unlock schedules, can cause even good projects to fail. Meanwhile, a fair distribution model, with the majority of supply reserved for the community and ecosystem, will help create real, sustainable demand.
“Tokens are more than just units of exchange. They are tools to drive user behavior. But if designed incorrectly, they can become a liability and detract from the product’s goals,” Malviya warns.
Tools to Help Investors Catch the Altcoin Wave
Individual investors can leverage data analytics platforms to make more informed decisions:
- DYOR: Tracks relative strength, tokenomics, and fundamental data for over 200 coins.
- DeFiLlama: Provides cross-chain DeFi volume and TVL data.
- Dune Analytics: Supports creating custom dashboards with rich on-chain data.
“As long as you know how to choose the right dashboard, track the right growth metrics, and build an investment thesis from that data, you will have a huge advantage over the rest of the market,” Malviya concludes.
Conclusion
The new altcoin season is no longer a mass game. It is a journey that requires careful selection, data analysis, and understanding of market dynamics. For retail investors, the opportunity is still there — but you need to be smart, nimble, and well-equipped to catch the next winners.